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Widespread flouting of social distancing and/or masking guidelines, and the emergence of anti-mask rhetoric among Trump loyalists as a very disturbing kind of political statement. There have been other side-effects: illegal raves and parties in the UK, for example. (I've only posted once since then, prior to this, and that last blog entry was about brainstorming a fiction idea, not current affairs.) In retrospect I should have anticipated that heavy-handed racist policing of lockdown would lead to numerous flashpoints worldwide. To be fair, George Floyd was brutally murdered by the Minneapolis police department on May 25th, and the predictive blog entry I'm referring back to was posted more than a month earlier. I totally didn't see Black Lives Matter turning into a global protest movement. I missed: the rest of the world, where populist authoritarian leaders everywhere are trying to make Trump and Johnson's handling of COVID19 look magisterial and professional, from Brazil's Bolsonaro to Russia's Putin. Prediction: it won't work, but it'll make Trump lots of enemies and a little bit of money. Trump buying up the global supply of remdesivir (even though it's not very effective) is exactly the kind of Milo Minderbinder act you'd expect of the guy. Dexamethasone improving the prognosis for ICU patients is a welcome finding, but it's not a magic bullet-it just reduces the death toll by up to 30% among people who require mechanical ventillation. Hydroxychloroquine is a bust (snake oil is about what you can expect from a snake oil salesman).

Wildcards: we might conceivably find a simple and effective medical treatment.

It'd be hilarious if I wasn't trapped in the back of the bus these clowns are driving towards a cliff. Because he's not a planner he delegates everything to Dominic Cummings, who is in the process of purging the top ranks of the civil service and replacing the current leadership with those willing to swear a loyalty oath to Brexit. His main approach to COVID19 is to treat it as a public relations project, so he's going with patriotic rah-rah rhetoric rather than coolly rational choices. Red states with Republican governors who are in complete denial are getting hit badly, though-notably Texas and Florida.īoris clung on to power and is now visible again, busy pulling levers and waffling in public, Cthulhu help us. 1-4 weeks later there will be a secondary surge in infections and it'll follow the same exponential growthīecause the US lockdown didn't really begin to lift until June, the USA is hitting this secondary surge right now, and some states are trying to lock down again.

Trump is shooting for May 1st because he's been told the economy will take 6 months to recover.

However, Westminster's desire to dink with the statistics in order to justify a premature re-opening is making it hard to tell just WTF is going on. Incidentally, Scotland is broadly coping better than England per this dashboard: there have been no new COVID19 cases confirmed in the past 4-5 days.

The English government (that is, the Westminster parliament governing England: Scotland is run by the Holyrood parliament in respect of domestic affairs such as public health and education) tried to convince schools to re-open, but that mostly flopped Scottish schools are, I believe, staying shut until the next academic year (the Scottish school year ends earlier than the English one by a couple of weeks). Lockdown lasted until the end of May in the USA it began being relaxed in England in mid-June, and here in Scotland non-essential shops are due to lift in July. Lockdown can't be sustained more than 1-2 weeks after peak ICU occupancy passes, so it will be lifted in mid-May in the UK and possibly as early as May 1st in the USA.Manufacturing of vaccine adjuvants and the little extras required to turn a raw product into a deliverable medical treatment are in progress, though. (I haven't seen any reports of them killing the guinea pigs though, so there's that.)

A few people have signed up for testing, but we won't know if the prototype vaccines have provided any protection for months yet. Too soon to tell it's only been two and a half months.

Vaccine development will take a flat minimum of 12 months.On April 16-gosh, it feels like an entire year ago-I made some predictions about where we were going.